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Davidowitz and Tuley Review the Contenders at the 2009 Pacific Classic

Davidowitz and Tuley Review the Contenders at the 2009 Pacific Classic

Steve Davidowitz has published two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing and is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus.

Dave Tuley was the Daily Racing Form's full-time Las Vegas correspondent from 2000 through May 2007 and now writes a weekly column for DRF and owns a new website called ViewFromVegas.com.

2009 Pacific Classic

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The top contenders…

The versatile and multiple Grade 1 winner EINSTEIN is here; so is COLONEL JOHN, the 2008 Travers winner and recent winner of a turf race here at Del Mar; and then we've got RAIL TRIP, who is six for eight lifetime, including the Hollywood Gold Cup in July; INFORMED, MAST TRACK and SONG OF NAVARONE, the 1-2-3 finishers in the local San Diego Handicap are here; as is the three-year-old MISREMEMBERED, game winner of the Swaps at Hollywood Park; and AWESOME GEM,  a six-year-old purse nibbler with $1.4 million in earnings; and GLOBAL HUNTER, winner of the Eddie Read on turf and a recent third in the Pat O'Brien at 6-1/2 furlongs; and don't forget PARADING, a G-2 stakes winner on turf, who also has won on Polytrack; and TRES BORRACHOS, a front running second to Rail Trip in his latest; and the improving long shot RICHARD'S KID.

How the race will be run…

There is great balance in the representative running styles for this year's Pacific Classic. TRES BORRACHOS, MISREMEMBERED and MAST TRACK have front running and pace pressing speed; RAIL TRIP is a natural stalker type who can pounce on the leaders leaving the far turn; and GLOBAL HUNTER is another who figures to be relatively close throughout. Otherwise, INFORMED and EINSTEIN are at their best when they can settle in mid pack through the first six furlongs; while most of the rest, including COLONEL JOHN, are stretch running types who would benefit from a hot pace.

My picks to win…

  1. RAIL TRIP has improved steadily while tackling stronger and going longer and gets a slim call over a deep field of contenders. I especially like his tenacious nature and his two exceptional workouts at one mile for this.
  2. COLONEL JOHN is the morning line favorite and his Travers win at this distance, as well as the likely fast pace, gives him a royal chance.
  3. EINSTEIN was not at his best in the Arlington Million last month, but has strong overall credentials and deserves a chance to rebound. GLOBAL HUNTER, INFORMED, MISREMEMBERED and MAST TRACK have similar, positive Beyer Speed Figures and should not be taken lightly.

My long shot…

Well, there is nothing quite as juicy this time around as the strong exacta preference I had for SUMMER BIRD and long shot HOLD ME BACK in last week's Travers,  but I do think the Doug O'Neill trained INFORMED may be somewhat underrated here. For one thing, he has two G-2 stakes wins in his last three starts, including the San Diego over the track and he seems quite fit. Meanwhile, O'Neill's other starter, GLOBAL HUNTER, has been well-prepared for this... but is best seen as a possible trifecta factor.

The top contenders…

COLONEL JOHN, long considered a synthetic track specialist in California until he won the Travers at Saratoga last August on the dirt, is the morning-line favorite off his July 31 victory in the Wickerr Stakes on the turf after a seven-month layoff. EINSTEIN, who has been the Breeders' Cup Classic future-book favorite this summer off his victory in the Santa Anita Handicap, offers a stern challenge and could vie for favoritism. RAIL TRIP comes in off his victory in the Hollywood Gold Cup.

How the race will be run…

Many of these - with the notable exception of the top two choices - ran in the Hollywood Gold Cup, which was won by RAIL TRIP. In that race, TRES BORRACHOS set a fast pace and should be expected to do the same on Sunday, and he'll probably be joined on the lead by MISREMEMBERED. RAIL TRIP will likely sit closer to the pace than COLONEL JOHN and EINSTEIN and it should come down to which of them closes stronger.

My picks to win…

  1. COLONEL JOHN was my Kentucky Derby horse in 2008 and even though he lost that day, I like to stick with first impressions. He should have a nice pace to run at and jockey Garrett Gomez should be able to put him wherever he needs to be and stay out of traffic trouble and set up his late kick.
  2. RAIL TRIP has won 6-of-8 lifetime starts, so you have to figure he'll be in the running. If he repeats his Gold Cup performance, he'll be tough to beat. One concern was a fast workout this past week when he went a mile in 1:36, but trainer Ron Ellis later said he came out of it just fine.
  3. TRES BORRACHOS showed in the Hollywood Gold Cup that he can set a fast pace and still have something left for the stretch. I almost put him higher except that it looks like he'll have more pressure up front, plus there's better horses looking to run him down.

My long shot…

MISREMEMBERED is at a class disadvantage in this race, having just Hollywood's Grade 2 Swaps on his graded-stakes résumé, but he's a late-developing colt from the Bob Baffert barn that has a huge upside. His morning-line price of 12-1 is lower than expected vs. this stellar field, but that shows how much respect he's being given.

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2009 Travers Stakes

The top contenders…

Despite the defections of Kentucky Derby winner MINE THAT BIRD and Preakness winner RACHEL ALEXANDRA, the 140th Travers Stakes has a very good field of seven, including Belmont stakes winner, SUMMER BIRD (#6); and Florida Derby winner, QUALITY ROAD (#4), who missed the Triple Crown series due to quarter crack issues. We also have KENSEI (#7); WARRIOR'S REWARD (#3) and CHARITABLE MAN (#2), the 1-2-3 finishers in the recent Jim Dandy Stakes; plus two long shots trained by Hall of Famers: Nick Zito's OUR EDGE (#5), recent winner of the Barbaro Stakes at Delaware Park, and Billy Mott's HOLD ME BACK (#1), whose premature move in the Kentucky Derby hinted that he may belong at this level.

How the race will be run…

Five of the horses in this closely matched field have sufficient speed to ensure a good, if not taxing pace for this 10 furlong distance. These include long shot OUR EDGE, Jim Dandy winner KENSEI and the two horses he defeated - WARRIOR'S REWARD and CHARITABLE MAN; plus the sprint prepped QUALITY ROAD, who was tough to catch in a swiftly run Florida Derby in March and is likely to be the betting favorite here. Should the riders on any of the speedy contenders over commit their mounts to take the lead prematurely, the door will be wide open for a wild and woolly final stretch drive in which SUMMER BIRD and long shot HOLD ME BACK could play prominent roles.

My picks to win…

  1. SUMMER BIRD, might be even better than his victory in the 1 1/2 mile Belmont stakes. His 2nd to Rachel Alexandra in the 9-furlong Haskell at Monmouth on Aug. 2 was a fine prep for this and his local workouts have been razor sharp.
  2. QUALITY ROAD, now healthy, is a high class colt with a gritty win in the local 6 1/2 furlong Amsterdam Stakes. Nevertheless, he is trying to become the first 3-yr-old in memory to score a Grade 1 win at 1 1/4 miles off a single sprint prep.
  3. KENSEI, Rachel's stable mate, had a good win over the track on Aug. 1, but will need a perfect stalk and go trip right outside the pace setter(s) to outrun his pedigree. Both WARRIOR'S REWARD and CHARITABLE MAN figure close while HOLD ME BACK has a puncher's chance to crack the exotics.

My long shot…

Once we get past 8-5 favorite QUALITY ROAD, whose limited preparation for this demanding task is the key question surrounding his winning chances, any of five horses can win this. 15-1 OUR EDGE can't be completely eliminated, but as to the best price value I believe the likely 3-1 second betting choice SUMMER BIRD offers legit value in the win pool and I might take him over 15-1 shot HOLD ME BACK and 6-1 CHARITABLE MAN in potentially lucrative exacta plays.

Added Note: Steve Davidowitz will be at Saratoga on Aug. 28 and 29 signing copies of his newly released Betting Thoroughbreds for the 21st Century, published by DRF Press.

The top contenders…

QUALITY ROAD won the Florida Derby back in March and, after missing the Triple Crown, returned by winning the Grade 2 Amsterdam here in track record fashion on Aug. 3. He is the 8-5 morning-line favorite. SUMMER BIRD won the Belmont. KENSAI has won two straight stakes, including the Grade 2 Jim Dandy, the traditional prep for the Travers.

How the race will be run…

QUALITY ROAD is the speed of the speed, but he won't be alone on the lead as OUR EDGE and CHARITABLE MAN also have early zip. KENSEI (from the outside post), HOLD ME BACK and WARRIOR'S REWARD will probably sit off the pace with SUMMER BIRD bringing up the rear. Turning for home, it could be anyone's race in a pretty well-balanced field.

My picks to win…

  1. KENSEI, from the Steve Asmussen barn which also could have entered Rachel Alexandra, won the Dwyer at Belmont and the Jim Dandy at Saratoga from just off the pace, and should get the same trip here. A late bloomer, he is peaking at the right time.
  2. QUALITY ROAD had the potential to be a superhorse off his Florida Derby win and was the likely Kentucky Derby favorite before being sidelined. He could put himself back in the running for Eclipse honors with a victory here; I just think the pace pressure might be too much.
  3. SUMMER BIRD is trying to follow in his dad's hoof prints as he tries to become the first to pull off the Belmont-Travers double since his sire did it in 2004. His big closing kick will certainly get a hot pace to run at in this race.

My long shot…

CHARITABLE MAN is more than just a pace factor. He lasted the distance (albeit an eighth of a mile shorter than this race) in the Peter Pan and should be worth a play at anything near his 6-1 morning-line odds. He's also coming off back-to-back bullet works.

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Preakness Stakes

The top contenders…

MINE THAT BIRD won the Kentucky Derby at 50-1, then was a strong 2nd to Rachel Alexandra at 6-1 in the Preakness Stakes, now he's probable 6-5 favorite; CHARITABLE MAN, lightly raced, has two stakes wins at Belmont including the recent Peter Pan Stakes; DUNKIRK was nowhere in Louisville, but was a solid 2nd in the Florida Derby; CHOCOLATE CANDY was an OK 5th in the Kentucky Derby and 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby; SUMMER BIRD gained ground when 6th in Kentucky Derby; MINER'S ESCAPE is improving for trainer Nick Zito, who won this in 2008 with DA'TARA; FLYING PRIVATE was 4th despite traffic problems in the Preakness Stakes for a trainer with four Belmont wins.

How the race will be run…

CHARITABLE MAN is the logical front runner, with only MINER'S ESCAPE likely to be close enough through the first six or seven furlongs to impact the pace. DUNKIRK, CHOCOLATE CANDY, SUMMER BIRD, FLYING PRIVATE and the strong finishing MINE THAT BIRD all have good rallies, with MINE THAT BIRD the strongest of them from what we have seen so far. But if any of the stretch runners have to use their speed earlier than usual, or if CHARITABLE MAN is coasting along at a moderate pace under jockey Alan Garcia (who rode DA'TARA to victory last year) then he will be an elusive target.

My picks to win…

  1. CHARITABLE MAN, a long striding son of the 1999 Belmont Stakes winner LEMON DROP KID, is fresh and perfectly trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, who won it with JAZIL in 2006. He should control the pace throughout.
  2. CHOCOLATE CANDY, a strong looking sort with several long workouts over the track seems set for improved try at good odds.
  3. MINE THAT BIRD's extraordinary late kick was effective at 10 furlongs and 1-3/16 miles in Louisville and Baltimore. Can he sustain that form in a slower paced 12-furlong race? Can jockey Calvin Borel complete his personal Triple Crown sweep? Maybe, but at 6-5 or so, I'll pass. DUNKIRK has trained well for this; might rebound.

My long shot…

In addition to CHOCOLATE CANDY, who I listed as my second pick in this race and my fourth preference DUNKIRK, I will be including stretch running SUMMER BIRD on my Trifecta and Superfecta tickets. A son of 2004 Belmont stakes winner BIRDSTONE (just like MINE THAT BIRD), SUMMER BIRD has a good long workout over the track with blinkers on to improve his concentration. Like CHARITABLE MAN, SUMMER BIRD is coming into the Belmont fresh and fit with only four lifetime starts and room to improve.

The top contenders…

MINE THAT BIRD is at the head of the 3-year-old class (at least among the boys) with his victory in the Kentucky Derby and his equally impressive runner-up finish in the Preakness Stakes to the filly Rachel Alexandra, and he gets back the services of jockey Calvin Borel, who is going for an unprecedented sweep of the Triple Crown riding different horses. CHARITABLE MAN won the Peter Pan Stakes and is 2-for-2 over this Belmont track. DUNKIRK was the wise-guy horse before the Derby but was knocked around early and didn't get a chance to run his race.

How the race will be run…

With the 1 1/2-mile distance, don't expect anyone to set a torrid pace, but CHARITABLE MAN is expected to inherit the lead and he should be pushed by MINER'S ESCAPE from the barn of Nick Zito, who also trains BRAVE VICTORY. The rest of the field should be able to pick their spots and stalk the pace. This field is full of late runners such as MINE THAT BIRD, CHOCOLATE CANDY, MR. HOT STUFF, BRAVE VICTORY, FLYING PRIVATE and SUMMER BIRD, and it will likely come down to who gets first run on the leaders and who can sustain that bid.

My picks to win…

  1. BRAVE VICTORY finished third in the Peter Pan over this track, but has legitimate excuses as he was too far back in that effort and should be more forwardly placed this time, plus jockey Rajiv Maragh lost his whip at the 3/16th pole yet BRAVE VICTORY still finished third. As a native New Yorker, Zito aims for this race as much as the Derby.
  2. CHARITABLE MAN has only run one bad race in four career starts and that was on the synthetic surface at Keeneland; he's 3-for-3 on dirt and is the son of 1999 Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid. His jockey, Alan Garcia, won the Belmont last year in wire-to-wire fashion with Da'Tara to foil Big Brown's Triple Crown bid.
  3. MINE THAT BIRD, who won the Derby at odds of 50-1, isn't flying under anyone's radar anymore. He has shown a very strong closing kick and as the son of 2004 Belmont winner Birdstone (who foiled Smarty Jones' Triple Crown bid) should be able to get the added distance. He might just have more trouble with fresher horses shooting at him.

My long shot…

SUMMER BIRD's story is a familiar one as he had a rough ride in the Derby and had to run wide and never really had a chance, yet he still finished a game sixth. Like MINE THAT BIRD, he is also a son of Birdstone. Look for a similar effort to when he closed strong in the Arkansas Derby. Four of the last nine Belmont Stakes races were won by horses that ran in the Derby but skipped the Preakness.

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Belmont Stakes

The top contenders…

MINE THAT BIRD won the Kentucky Derby at 50-1, then was a strong 2nd to Rachel Alexandra at 6-1 in the Preakness Stakes, now he's probable 6-5 favorite; CHARITABLE MAN, lightly raced, has two stakes wins at Belmont including the recent Peter Pan Stakes; DUNKIRK was nowhere in Louisville, but was a solid 2nd in the Florida Derby; CHOCOLATE CANDY was an OK 5th in the Kentucky Derby and 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby; SUMMER BIRD gained ground when 6th in Kentucky Derby; MINER'S ESCAPE is improving for trainer Nick Zito, who won this in 2008 with DA'TARA; FLYING PRIVATE was 4th despite traffic problems in the Preakness Stakes for a trainer with four Belmont wins.

How the race will be run…

CHARITABLE MAN is the logical front runner, with only MINER'S ESCAPE likely to be close enough through the first six or seven furlongs to impact the pace. DUNKIRK, CHOCOLATE CANDY, SUMMER BIRD, FLYING PRIVATE and the strong finishing MINE THAT BIRD all have good rallies, with MINE THAT BIRD the strongest of them from what we have seen so far. But if any of the stretch runners have to use their speed earlier than usual, or if CHARITABLE MAN is coasting along at a moderate pace under jockey Alan Garcia (who rode DA'TARA to victory last year) then he will be an elusive target.

My picks to win…

  1. CHARITABLE MAN, a long striding son of the 1999 Belmont Stakes winner LEMON DROP KID, is fresh and perfectly trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, who won it with JAZIL in 2006. He should control the pace throughout.
  2. CHOCOLATE CANDY, a strong looking sort with several long workouts over the track seems set for improved try at good odds.
  3. MINE THAT BIRD's extraordinary late kick was effective at 10 furlongs and 1-3/16 miles in Louisville and Baltimore. Can he sustain that form in a slower paced 12-furlong race? Can jockey Calvin Borel complete his personal Triple Crown sweep? Maybe, but at 6-5 or so, I'll pass. DUNKIRK has trained well for this; might rebound.

My long shot…

In addition to CHOCOLATE CANDY, who I listed as my second pick in this race and my fourth preference DUNKIRK, I will be including stretch running SUMMER BIRD on my Trifecta and Superfecta tickets. A son of 2004 Belmont stakes winner BIRDSTONE (just like MINE THAT BIRD), SUMMER BIRD has a good long workout over the track with blinkers on to improve his concentration. Like CHARITABLE MAN, SUMMER BIRD is coming into the Belmont fresh and fit with only four lifetime starts and room to improve.

The top contenders…

MINE THAT BIRD is at the head of the 3-year-old class (at least among the boys) with his victory in the Kentucky Derby and his equally impressive runner-up finish in the Preakness Stakes to the filly Rachel Alexandra, and he gets back the services of jockey Calvin Borel, who is going for an unprecedented sweep of the Triple Crown riding different horses. CHARITABLE MAN won the Peter Pan Stakes and is 2-for-2 over this Belmont track. DUNKIRK was the wise-guy horse before the Derby but was knocked around early and didn't get a chance to run his race.

How the race will be run…

With the 1 1/2-mile distance, don't expect anyone to set a torrid pace, but CHARITABLE MAN is expected to inherit the lead and he should be pushed by MINER'S ESCAPE from the barn of Nick Zito, who also trains BRAVE VICTORY. The rest of the field should be able to pick their spots and stalk the pace. This field is full of late runners such as MINE THAT BIRD, CHOCOLATE CANDY, MR. HOT STUFF, BRAVE VICTORY, FLYING PRIVATE and SUMMER BIRD, and it will likely come down to who gets first run on the leaders and who can sustain that bid.

My picks to win…

  1. BRAVE VICTORY finished third in the Peter Pan over this track, but has legitimate excuses as he was too far back in that effort and should be more forwardly placed this time, plus jockey Rajiv Maragh lost his whip at the 3/16th pole yet BRAVE VICTORY still finished third. As a native New Yorker, Zito aims for this race as much as the Derby.
  2. CHARITABLE MAN has only run one bad race in four career starts and that was on the synthetic surface at Keeneland; he's 3-for-3 on dirt and is the son of 1999 Belmont winner Lemon Drop Kid. His jockey, Alan Garcia, won the Belmont last year in wire-to-wire fashion with Da'Tara to foil Big Brown's Triple Crown bid.
  3. MINE THAT BIRD, who won the Derby at odds of 50-1, isn't flying under anyone's radar anymore. He has shown a very strong closing kick and as the son of 2004 Belmont winner Birdstone (who foiled Smarty Jones' Triple Crown bid) should be able to get the added distance. He might just have more trouble with fresher horses shooting at him.

My long shot…

SUMMER BIRD's story is a familiar one as he had a rough ride in the Derby and had to run wide and never really had a chance, yet he still finished a game sixth. Like MINE THAT BIRD, he is also a son of Birdstone. Look for a similar effort to when he closed strong in the Arkansas Derby. Four of the last nine Belmont Stakes races were won by horses that ran in the Derby but skipped the Preakness.

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