Should Lane's End Winner Go To The Kentucky Derby?

by Steve Davidowitz | Mar 26 2008

Very Light Weekend to be Followed by Very Heavy March 29th Schedule

A Column by Steve Davidowitz
March 26, 2008

For many years, the $500,000 Lane's End Stakes has been a useful early forum for prospective Kentucky Derby contenders. Yet, despite Adriano's convincing victory in the Lane's End at Turfway Park on Saturday, March 22nd, trainer Graham Motion seems inclined not to go that route.

Motion only wavered slightly on his anti-Derby stance after Adriano won the nine-furlong Lane's End with energy to spare. "We'll give it some thought of course," he said, "but my inclination all along has been not to run him in the Derby."

Motion is an experienced horseman with several graded stakes victories in his resume, but I wonder if he is making a mistake with this son of A.P. Indy.

For sure, Adriano has excellent form on the turf and a big future if kept on the grass. However, the Lane's End was run on synthetic Polytrack - not a dirt track such as in play at Churchill Downs - and Adriano is unproven on dirt.

It's also true that Adriano only earned a moderate 92 Beyer Speed Figure for his Lane's End performance, which is slightly below the Grade-3 level for 3-year-olds in March. Moreover, he didn't defeat any high profile Derby contenders. But those yardsticks aren't the only tools to measure a horse's form or potential.

Adriano sure looked smooth to me, gaining complete control of the race entering the far turn, pulling into the clear in the upper stretch and then galloping out strongly beyond the finish. The late move and the gallop out suggest that Adriano would be one of few Derby horses this year who will relish 10 furlongs.

So why not give this lightly raced and improving colt his chance at immortality? What is there in his performances that say he can't be the right horse in a year when the competition appears below standard? With 5 1/2 weeks to the Derby, arguments are being made to consider the fillies Country Star and Eight Belles as legit Derby contenders.

Fact is, Derby Fever may come to Graham Motion and owner Donald Cortland in time for them to give this colt another opportunity, perhaps in one of the three April 12th prep races - the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland or the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, both at 1 1/8 miles, or even the 1 3/16-mile Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream. Should Motion and Cortland bypass those options, they just might discover Derby Fever while in the Churchill Downs grandstand on Derby Day as they watch one of this year's modestly accomplished 3-year-olds getting draped with the traditional blanket of roses.

Realistically, I'm not convinced Adriano can win the Derby - he still has to improve a few lengths and prove his ability on dirt - but after watching him win the Lane's End so effortlessly, I firmly believe he ranks among the top 10 Derby horses in training and hasn't yet reached the peak of his powers. In my book, he deserves a chance to take the next steps. ((For a line on my top 12 Derby contenders, please check the updated weekly rankings elsewhere on the Bodog racing page.)

As for the horses that finished behind Adriano, a few also seem to have bright futures. Here are my notes on the race.

Saturday, March 22nd at Turfway Park

* The $500,000 Lane's End Stakes (G2), 1 1/8 miles on Polytrack for 3-year-olds

Fractional Splits: 23.03. . .47.18. . .1:12.57. . .1:37.87. . .1:50.20
Winning Beyer Speed Figure: 92 (below the Grade-3 level, but it included a very good final furlong in 12.37 plus a strong gallop out for the top three)

Adriano dominated the race, as described above, going wide early and taking control for the final three furlongs after attacking front running 99-1 shot Rich Young Ruler, who faded to 10th. Never forced to reach his best, Adriano came back to the saddling area with plenty of reserve energy as if he could have gone around again.

Halo Najib was wide early and launched a good bid right behind the winner on the final turn. He got within a length in mid-stretch but was out-finished while nevertheless galloping out well after the wire.

Medjool, a maiden winner over the promising Screen to Screen in Southern California on February 18th, did well to maintain a striking position in this contest while at least six wide on both turns. After improving his position gradually and sitting slightly behind Halo Najib on the final turn, he was able to match strides with the second-place finisher to the wire and beyond.

Adding some depth to Medjool'soverall form, Screen to Screen came out of the Santa Anita maiden race to finish second in the $600,000 WinStar Derby at Sunland Park on March 16th (see last week's archived column for my notes on the WinStar Derby).

Of the rest, fourth-place finisher Racecar Rhapsody gained his best stride way too late and is a longshot to consider for improvement in his next, while sixth-place finisher Cannonball made a nice run to challenge on the far turn but couldn't sustain his bid and will probably return to turf racing. Todd Pletcher's Chitoz finished a non-threatening fifth and his early speed type Duke of Debuque faded to last to continue Pletcher's weak pre-Derby season.

Added Note: In the traditional but ungraded $100,000 Rushaway Stakes for 3-year-olds on the Lane's End card, locally based Big Glen out-gamed previously unbeaten Miner's Claim in a relatively slow contest that nevertheless provided a strong battle decided only in the final stride.

2007 Belmont Stakes Winning Filly Rags to Riches Retires

As expected by many, Rags to Riches has been formally retired to the breeding shed. The hugely proportioned filly, who out-gamed 2007 Preakness winner Curlin in the 2007 Belmont Stakes, didn't race in the final 3 1/2 months of the year after incurring a hairline fracture to her right front pastern. She was retired this week when trainer Todd Pletcher noticed an aggravation of that injury.

Rags to Riches was indisputably the best 3-year-old filly of the young 21st century. She retired with five wins from six career outings, including four Grade 1 victories, and there is little doubt that the daughter of A.P. Indy will be in high demand as a broodmare.

Former Claimer Wins Grade 2 Turf Stakes at Santa Anita

Boule d'Or, claimed for $50,000 by trainer Jeff Mullins on January 20th, won the 1 1/2-mile $200,000 San Luis Rey (G2) on Santa Anita's turf course on Saturday. He did it by setting the pace throughout and by opening turning in a fast second quarter mile under Tyler Baze that catapulted him to a huge lead. While obviously tiring in the final furlongs, Boule d'Or held on for a 3/4-length victory over fast closing Porfidio and Warning Zone who were noses apart in second and third, respectively.

Peppers Pride One Race Away from Tying Prestigious Win Streak

Undefeated New Mexico bred Peppers Pride won the Sydney Valentini Handicap at one mile at Sunland Park on Sunday, March 23rd, for her 15th victory in succession. The win puts her within one of the modern record of 16 straight held jointly by Citation, Cigar, Mr. Frisky and Hallowed Dreams.

$21 Million Dubai World Cup This Saturday

On Saturday evening in The United Arab Emirates, the Dubai World Cup races will be held, with 2007 Horse of the Year Curlin the logical favorite over a good international group in the $6 million Dubai World Cup at 1 1/14 miles. Five other rich Thoroughbred races will be contested on that annual extravaganza at Nad Al Sheba racecourse with total purses exceeding $21 million. The six Thoroughbred races include several American-based horses and many of the best from South Africa, Australia, Europe and the Orient.

Please note that analysis for all six Dubai World Cup races by Dave Tuley and myself will be posted on this website. All six races - plus an earlier race for Arabian breds - will be telecast in America on HRTV beginning at 9:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time.

$1 Million Florida Derby to Test Big Brown and Hey Byrn

Also on Saturday, the important $1 million Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park will be offered, and we will finally find out whether the highly touted Big Brown (two-for-two on turf and dirt) is for real or if vastly improved Hey Byrn (two-for-two this year) is also Derby timber.

Logical rivals include: the 1-2 finishers in the Fountain of Youth, Cool Coal Man and Elysium Fields; the Sam F. Davis winner Fierce Wind; longshots Cool Gator, Smooth Air and Face the Cat; plus the Peruvian star Tomcito, who has already won at 1 1/2 miles in his native land.

Steve Davidowitz has written two highly acclaimed books on Thoroughbred racing---Betting Thoroughbreds and The Best and Worst of Thoroughbred Racing. He also is a regular contributor to Daily Racing Form's Simulcast Weekly and DRF Plus and his columns appear in the Bodog Racebook each week.