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On the Kentucky Derby Trail: Derby Updates

by Patricia Woo | Apr 13 2009

If you are betting on the Kentucky Derby this year, you'd better take a second look at your top picks. This week saw a big shake-up of the list of top 20 horses: an injury to frontrunner Old Fashioned, the sudden emergence of Papa Clem and the return of old favorite Square Eddie.

The $1M Gr. 2 Arkansas Derby was supposed to feature Old Fashioned's return to form after getting surprised by 56-1 longshot Win Willy in last month's Rebel Stakes. Instead, the son of Unbridled's Song came out of the race, in which he finished runner-up, with a fracture to his right front knee - a potentially career-ending injury. According to trainer Larry Jones, Old Fashioned will now be shipped to Lexington, Ky., for surgery and reassessment. "[The injury is] not life-threatening, it should be okay," Jones said after learning the news. "Career-ending is a possibility just because of the type of horse he is. But we'll see." Old Fashioned came into 2009 a top Kentucky Derby contender off a three-race win streak, and he kicked off his year with a victory in the $250,000 Gr. 3 Southwest Stakes in February. Now, with Old Fashioned on the sidelines, many will be scrambling to find a new favorite to back in the Kentucky Derby on May 2.

Horse racing fans may need to look no further for that new favorite than the winner of the Arkansas Derby, which took place at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark., on Saturday, April 11. After finishing runner-up to top Kentucky Derby contenders in his last two outings (behind Pioneerof the Nile in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in February and then Friesan Fire in the Louisiana Derby in March), Papa Clem finally came into his own with a tremendous stretch run in the Arkansas Derby. Now, not only does this California-based Smart Strike colt appear to be peaking at just the right time to take advantage of having enough graded stakes earnings to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby lineup (he earned $600,000 for the win), he has proven his ability on conventional dirt tracks, which will serve him well at Churchill Downs.

That Kentucky Derby lineup will feature an old favorite, Square Eddie, who is back on the Triple Crown trail after recovering from an injury. The 2008 Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up came into 2009 a top Derby prospect but finished second to the now-injured The Pamplemousse in the San Rafael Stakes on Jan 17. He was then diagnosed with a leg microfracture, which threatened to keep him off the Derby trail. But the colt has made such steady progress that trainer Doug O'Neill and owner Paul Reddam have targeted the $300,000 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday, April 18, as a final prep race for their charge leading up to the Kentucky Derby. "Realistically to win a mile-and-a-quarter race off a layoff, we'll need a good prep," said O'Neill. Keeneland was the site of Square Eddie's 2008 Breeders' Futurity win last April, and may just be the backdrop for his triumphant return to racing.

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2009
Looking for our Archive of Expert Racing Analysis by Steve Davidowitz? Click here to find his take on the 2008 racing season including reviews for the 2008 Triple Crown and the 2008 Breeders' Cup races.

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