Betting on the 2009 Kentucky Derby: History in the Making
by Patricia Woo | Apr 27 2009
With the Kentucky Derby's rich history, a look back into the record books could provide clues on how this year's race could be run. When was the last time a horse that did not race as a 2-year-old win the Kentucky Derby? And have any longshots won the Run for the Roses in recent memory? Study up - the
135th Kentucky Derby is right around the corner.
One of this year's top contenders is Dunkirk, a 3-year-old son of Unbridled's Song from the barn of Todd Pletcher who was bought for $3.7M in the 2007 Keeneland sale. Unraced at 2, Dunkirk broke his maiden as a 3-year-old in January at Gulfstream Park. His last outing was a solid runner-up finish behind Quality Road (who has been withdrawn from the Kentucky Derby due to quarter cracks) in the Gr. 1 Florida Derby in March, but it was his eye-catching win in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park a month earlier that catapulted him into the spotlight. This Kentucky-bred colt will be working against history, however, when he enters the starting gate on Saturday. Not since 1882 when Apollo won the 8th Run for the Roses has a horse won the Kentucky Derby unraced as a 2-year-old. So Dunkirk may be an attractive choice come Saturday, May 2nd, but be aware that history will not be on your side.
On paper, longshots like Mine That Bird (100/1), Mr. Hot Stuff (45/1) and Advice (30/1) don't seem to have a chance at Kentucky Derby glory. They haven't won a race all year and have just barely made enough graded stakes earnings to even be considered. But don't count any of them out. In 2005, Giacomo was a 50-1 longshot in a Kentucky Derby field that included favorites Afleet Alex and Bellamy Road. Near the back of the pack for most of the race, Giacomo and jockey Mike Smith made up ground on the field in the stretch run and ran down the favorites in the final strides. Though he was not a factor in the
Triple Crown's later races (the Preakness Stakes and the Belmont Stakes were won by Afleet Alex), Giacomo proved that having a winning record does not guarantee victory come the first Saturday in May.
Other interesting Derby tidbits: Since 1995, D. Wayne Lukas has trained the winning horse three times (Thunder Gulch - 1995; Grindstone - 1996; Charismatic - 1999). This year, his charge is Flying Private, a relative unknown who has been languishing just out of the winner's circle all season long. Flying Private's pedigree is impressive, however; he is sired by 2000 Kentucky Derby champion Fusaichi Pegasus. Fusaichi Pegasus was ridden to victory by Kent Desormeaux, who not only won two years earlier aboard Real Quiet, but in 2008 Big Brown. Desormeaux's mount this year is Hold Me Back, winner of the Lane's End Stakes in March.
*Odds subject to change.
Bet on the Kentucky Derby at the Bodog Racebook!
