Is Einstein the Smart Choice in Arlington Million XXVII?

by Patricia Woo | Aug 3 2009

The 27th running of the Arlington Million (G1) on Saturday at Arlington Park is the marquee event of the International Festival of Racing, with the winner earning an automatic starting berth in the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) on Nov. 7 at Santa Anita.

The Arlington Million always has an international flair. There are three European shippers this year, along with the fact that the winner also gets an automatic invitation to the Japan Cup (G1) when it is run in Tokyo later in the year.

This year's renewal will draw a probable field of nine runners including the top three turf runners based in the U.S.: Einstein, Gio Ponti, and Presious Passion.

Einstein is a seven year old trained by Helen Pitts, a multiple Grade 1 winner who has shown he can run well on any surface.

The son of Spend a Buck won the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) over a synthetic surface on March 7, then won the Turf Classic (G1) on turf at Churchill Downs on May 2.

He nearly joined Lava Man as the only horse to win a Grade 1 on three different surfaces when he ran a close third in his last start in the Stephen Foster (G1) on dirt.

He has done most of his best running on turf, wining seven of his 11 career starts, and figures to vie for favoritism with Gio Ponti.

The Christophe Clement trained Gio Ponti is coming into the Arlington Million in the best form of his career, winning three consecutive Grade 1 races.

The colt won the Man o' War in his most recent outing at Belmont Park on July 11, going 1 3/8 miles, and is proven at the distance of the Arlington Million, winning the Virginia Derby (G2) last year and the Manhattan Handicap (G1) on June 6.

Gio Ponti will likely be the slight favorite in the race, with Einstein a close second, but Presious Passion will garner plenty of respect at the betting windows on Saturday.

The six-year-old gelding is coming off a spectacular performance, winning the United Nations (G1) at Monmouth Park on July 4.

Under jockey Elvis Trujillo, the gelding opened up a lead of over 20 lengths, setting incredibly fast fractions.

Normally on turf at marathon distances horses trying to steal the race with such tactics run out of gas in the stretch. However, the gelding kept on rolling, holding on to win by two lengths, his fourth win in his last six starts.

There is not much other early speed in the race, and the strategy will not be a secret. Elvis will attempt to leave the building early again.

The main early pace threat could be Recapturetheglory, who possesses some early speed but does not have the class to be a factor in the stretch against these top-notch turf horses.

The best of the trio of runners coming in from the other side of the pond is likely Gloria de Capeao, a Brazilian bred who is coming off one of his best performances of his career.

The six year old prevailed by a head to win the Singapore Airlines International Cup (G1) on May 17.

In his previous start, he ran a distant second to Well Armed in the Dubai World Cup (G1), which is contested on dirt.

The other two shipping in from overseas for the race are Stotsfold, who is coming off a win in the La Coupe (G3) at Longchamp in France, and Cima de Triomphe, who finished fourth behind the highly regarded Sea The Stars last time out in the Eclipse Stakes (G1) at Sandown Park.

Others pointed toward the race are Arlington Park Handicap (G3) winner Just as Well, and Mr. Sidney, who won the Firecracker Handicap (G2) at Churchill Downs in his most recent outing.

Horses bred overseas have won this race five times since 2001, but the trio of U.S. based runners this year is going to be tough for the European shippers to handle.